Letter from Roy Neel, the new Dean CEO:

Regardless of who takes first place in these states, we think that after Wisconsin we’ll get Kerry in the open field. Remember one crucial thing about the 2004 calendar - in previous years a front-runner or presumptive nominee would typically emerge after most of the states had voted and most of the delegates had been chosen. The final competitor to that candidate, even if he won late states, as many have done, has not been able to win a majority of delegates under any scenario.

This year is very different. The media and the party insiders will attempt to declare Kerry the winner on February 3 after fewer than 10% of the state delegates have been chosen. At that point Kerry himself will probably have claimed fewer than one third of the delegates he needs to win. They would like the campaign to be over before the voters of California, New York, Texas and nearly every other big state have spoken.

Democrats in Florida, who witnessed a perversion of democracy in November 2000, will not have a choice concerning the nominee if the media and the party insiders have their way.

We intend to make this campaign a choice. We alone of the remaining challengers to John Kerry are geared to the long haul - we’ve raised nearly $2 million in the week after Iowa, over $600,000 in the 48 hours since New Hampshire. No candidate - not even Kerry, who mortgaged his house and tapped his personal fortune to funnel $7 million into his campaign - will have sufficient funds to advertise in all, or even most, of the big states that fall on March 2 and beyond. At that point paid advertising becomes much less of a factor.

And we alone of the remaining challengers offer a clear choice to Kerry. Howard Dean is no Johnny Come Lately to the message of change - he has actually delivered change in Vermont. Howard Dean has the courage and conviction to stand up for what’s right, even when it’s not politically popular, as opposed to the cautiousness, compromise and convenience that has characterized John Kerry’s 19 years in the Senate.

I got a few letters from readers taking me to task for asking y’all to donate to Dean this week. (One of them said he knows I “dislike” Kerry, which isn’t true. I just don’t think he’s the right man for the job. I was an executive recruiter, remember?)

Let me recap my concerns about Kerry: He’s quite thoroughly marinated in the Beltway compromise culture. Now, if the country wasn’t already falling apart, that might not be such a bad thing. (Remember how badly Carter did without that experience?) But since both houses of Congress are controlled by wingnuts, I see it as a very bad thing. Do we really need another Democratic leader a la Daschle whose main gift is smiling and being gracious when the Republican bulldozer runs him down?

Kerry is lacking in large-room personal charisma (what Molly Ivins calls “Elvis”) and any Democrat who ends up in the White House at this period in our history will sorely need it. He’s getting the castor oil vote: As in, “I’ll hold my nose and take my medicine because it’s good for me.”

Understand what I’m saying: Kerry can win the presidency. But I don’t see him conveying the urgency of what needs to be done, I don’t see people connecting to him. And he’ll be helpless without that connection.

When the top of the ticket doesn’t inspire passion, voters tend to support the incumbents for everything else. Bad, bad, bad. Because a Democratic president will need to go directly to them to move Congress. If he can’t move Congress, he becomes a figurehead who controls patronage, has some regulatory power and little else. Yes, he’ll have the veto. But if he can’t convey to the public why he’s using it, it won’t matter. Because Congress won’t hesitate to override it.

It’s no secret that Howard Dean is an admirer of Harry “Give ‘Em Hell” Truman. His no-nonsense, straightforward manner is cut from the same cloth, and when you listen to Dean again and again, you get a strong sense of who he is. That’s what we need, not just to win, but to be effective after we do.

I’ve worked in sales and marketing for the past decade, and it’s a field dominated by conservative Republicans. That puts liberals at a distinct disadvantage - Democrats seem to think it’s “dirty” and can’t be bothered to understand the psychology of sales. They’d rather intellectualize, because they’re more familiar and less judgmental of that.

One of the first rules of sales is, you’re not really selling the product. You’re selling your personality, your credibility, the impression you’ve made on the prospective client. That sense that, if you buy from me, I’m not going to stiff you. I’m not like those other salesmen.

Personality trumps product knowledge every time. Add product knowledge to personality, though, and you’ve got yourself a winner.

Kerry has product knowledge without personality. Go ahead and hire him if you want, but he’s the wrong man and the results will show it. You can’t get people to make what is ultimately an emotional decision based on technical ability. If they do - if their fear of Bush is so great, they’ll vote for him anyway - they will have no confidence in him once he’s there.

The Republicans will know it. They’ll use it against him - and us.

And then we’re really fucked.

I see John Kerry as a dog running after a car. What will a dog do with a car after he catches it?