Melanie, who lives and breathes this stuff, speaks on the possibility of an avian flu pandemic:
Let me make a few things plain: the experts I consult are deeply divided on the probability of a pandemic flu, but none of them think that the probability is zero. Some think it is highly likely in the next ten years, others think the possibility is remote. I think that the recent outbreaks of avian influenza in Southeast Asia deserve very careful monitoring, which they likely won’t get. The surveillance networks in those countries are simply too weak.
Lots more. Educate yourselves.
Having lived through the “swine fluBest Way to Prevent Flu Is to Wash Hands several times a day.
OOPs, my comment got bloggered. What I meant to say is that the Great Flu Epidemic has been over-hyped. The only effective long term action (National Health Care) won’t get implemented until after a Katrina-level disaster.
Meanwhile, the Best Way to Prevent Flu Is to Wash Hands. Stockpiling anti-viral drugs is like buying duct tape and plastic sheeting for chemical weapons attack - it makes you feel like you’re doing something useful but is of little practical effect.
Sigh. Every time Susie blogs something about the flu, someone comes on to say that it’s being “overhyped.” Nobody, absolutely nobody, knows whether it’s being overhyped, underhyped, or hyped just right. And we won’t know unless it actually hits. If you read the flu wiki
http://www.fluwikie.com
you’ll see that lots and lots of epidemiologists, public health officials, and journalists are watching this VERY CLOSELY. Indonesia has cases, China has lots of cases and probably more than they are letting on, and if the H151 virus mutates so that it is easily passed in humans (which TO OUR KNOWLEDGE has not happened yet), then the world is in for a doozy of a flu season.
Will it happen? Who knows? But it’s not useless to prepare yourselves. Those who say otherwise are doing a disservice to their communities.
Excellent risk communication means laying out all of the possibilities, including the worst case scenario. In the absence of data (which is the state we are in) it becomes the responsibility of each individual and community to decide what their level of preparation ought to be.