Two-Minute Warning
Nov 28th, 2006 at 8:40 am by Susie
Via Corrente, time is running out in Iraq:
* Iraq - The accelerating violence in Iraq will lead to the complete collapse of the Iraqi government by year end. The atrocities to come will make the Balkan Wars pale in comparison. This in turn will accelerate the separation of Iraq into three ethno-religious fiefdoms (Kurdistan in the North, Shi’astan in the South, Jihadistan in the central west). That process alone will involve a human tragedy of significant proportion. Due to forced migration from zones of ethnic cleansing, refugees by the many thousands will require aid and assistance.
* Iran - Knowing the US has neither the political will nor the force projection capability to stand against it, Iran will lend the full weight of its economic and military power to ensure the Shi’a acheive dominance in Baghdad and the South.
* Lebanon - The pro-Saudi/anti-Syrian Sunni- Maronite alliance and Hizbollah are racing towards a violent confrontation. Reports indicate the militias are re-arming. Christians and Druze are reinforcing their mountain strongholds. In the ensuing violence Syria may find an opening to re-assert itself over its renegade province. Isreal’s reaction would be predictable.
* US - Without a government, the Iraqi security services and army will complete their transformation to sectarian militias. The US exit strategy of building local capacity to replace American units will collapse and its forces will find themselves just one more combatant force amongst what could be a six-way struggle. Remaining neutral in such a conflict is untenable as it holds no promise of success. Then wither US strategy? Will the US align with its traditional Sunni allies - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, and Turkey to prevent the rise of Iranian hegemony? Will the US indirectly fund radical Sunni jihadists in that effort? The last time the US planted that seed was in Afghanistan and the eventual fruit of that policy was the rise of the Taliban and 911.
Suzie (and everybody),
Watch (and listen) to this. Trust me.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eDJ3cuXKV4
Joe Clark,
Atlanta
Good article with solid analysis but I do take exception to one line in it. In talking about Lebanon it states about it being a “renegade province” of Syria. This give the appearance of legitimacy to Syria’s claims/desires/ambitions yet ignores the historical facts that Lebanon has never been a part of Syria. Prior to it’s independance in 1943 Lebanon was a colony of France and before that part of the Ottoman Empire which Syria was also part of. So there is no basis for calling a province of Syria.