Chicago Dyke rethinks the strategy that says Democrats can win without the South:

According to an analysis by Polidata, a political data consulting firm, seven states are all but certain to lose at least one seat: Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Another six states are all but certain to gain at least one seat: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Texas and Utah.

A few other interesting projections from Polidata: Texas could pick up as many as 4 congressional seats; New York and Ohio could lose 2 seats. California, for the first time since statehood, may not pick up any seats.

Polidata’s Clark Bensen also observes that Florida (currently with 25 seats) is now poised to replace New York (29 seats) as the third most populous state – and that both states might end up with 27-member delegations when the dust settles after reapportionment

News like this makes me believe a couple of things. It’s not so much that I’m revising my opinion of Schaller’s thesis, but that I think it becomes that much more important for Democrats to shore up their control over Northern and Midwestern districts, and show a willingness to take advantage of the Congressional power they have now, indeed even unto redistricting a la the Texan example, to ensure that Democrats hold on the the power they have. It also means that at the same time Southern Democrats have to do everything they can to make sure that the transplant communties are brought into the Democratic Southern fold. Outreach, GOTV efforts, tracking…I’m sure there is a long list of things Republicans would do, and are doing, to make sure this population shift benefits them. Are the Democrats doing the same?