Comments on: Paradigm Shift? http://susiemadrak.com/2008/01/04/10/04/paradigm-shift-2/ Keeping a jaundiced eye on the corporate media. Sat, 22 Nov 2008 21:17:59 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: Ron http://susiemadrak.com/2008/01/04/10/04/paradigm-shift-2/#comment-134151 Ron Fri, 04 Jan 2008 23:26:03 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/2008/01/04/10/04/paradigm-shift-2/#comment-134151 Thanks Henry for the discussion and link. They basically jive with my ham handed look at pre and post numbers. I hope your wrong about Edwards though. While I'll ultimately support any Dem over the party of Bush, I don't see any substantive change coming from Obama. A lot of rhetoric yes, but the rest business as usual. Same machine running the country (to the detriment of all of us), just a different mask. Thanks Henry for the discussion and link. They basically jive with my ham handed look at pre and post numbers. I hope your wrong about Edwards though. While I’ll ultimately support any Dem over the party of Bush, I don’t see any substantive change coming from Obama. A lot of rhetoric yes, but the rest business as usual. Same machine running the country (to the detriment of all of us), just a different mask.

]]> By: k http://susiemadrak.com/2008/01/04/10/04/paradigm-shift-2/#comment-134150 k Fri, 04 Jan 2008 22:39:56 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/2008/01/04/10/04/paradigm-shift-2/#comment-134150 I'm happy - no, ecstatic with the results. What has been asked for has been received. Now that it's been gotten we can see what was really wanted. Let the games fucking begin for real. I’m happy - no, ecstatic with the results. What has been asked for has been received. Now that it’s been gotten we can see what was really wanted. Let the games fucking begin for real.

]]> By: Henry http://susiemadrak.com/2008/01/04/10/04/paradigm-shift-2/#comment-134144 Henry Fri, 04 Jan 2008 20:00:12 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/2008/01/04/10/04/paradigm-shift-2/#comment-134144 Ron--while it's hard to draw hard conclusions from such a complex process in which voters switch camps on either an individual or group basis, the "entrance polling" of Democratic caucus goers suggests that Edwards actually benefited more than Obama from second choice shifts, that is to say that Obama showed a healthy majority when people were asked to give their first choice and Edwards made up the most ground between entrance polls and final numbers. That is, at any rate, the quick and dirty analysis that Josh Marshall at TPM offers: http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/entrance_poll_the_secondprefs_winner_was_edwards.php. I also don't think that a candidate, such as Kucinich or Richardson, has all that much power to direct his supporters to vote for anyone in particular as number 2. This isn't scientific, but the coverage i saw on CSPAN from the Democratic caucus in some precinct showed a Biden captain telling his fellow Bidenites that he was going over to Edwards, but taking a very soft sell approach, saying at one point "Of course, you should go where you want. . . . I'm not saying we should stay together as a bloc." Given the face-to-face quality of the caucuses and the very loose allegiance that any caucus goer has to any particular candidate and ever looser allegiance to other members of his or her bloc, I just don't think that "deals" matter all that much. After all, if unions can't persuade their members to vote Democratic, then why would a recommendation from Kucinich or Richardson carry any weight? I am an Edwards supporter but inclined to believe that his campaign is now effectively over, unless something totally unexpected happens in New Hampshire. I only hope he does not disappear after February, although I certainly don't see Obama including him on his ticket. Ron–while it’s hard to draw hard conclusions from such a complex process in which voters switch camps on either an individual or group basis, the “entrance polling” of Democratic caucus goers suggests that Edwards actually benefited more than Obama from second choice shifts, that is to say that Obama showed a healthy majority when people were asked to give their first choice and Edwards made up the most ground between entrance polls and final numbers. That is, at any rate, the quick and dirty analysis that Josh Marshall at TPM offers: http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/entrance_poll_the_secondprefs_winner_was_edwards.php.

I also don’t think that a candidate, such as Kucinich or Richardson, has all that much power to direct his supporters to vote for anyone in particular as number 2. This isn’t scientific, but the coverage i saw on CSPAN from the Democratic caucus in some precinct showed a Biden captain telling his fellow Bidenites that he was going over to Edwards, but taking a very soft sell approach, saying at one point “Of course, you should go where you want. . . . I’m not saying we should stay together as a bloc.” Given the face-to-face quality of the caucuses and the very loose allegiance that any caucus goer has to any particular candidate and ever looser allegiance to other members of his or her bloc, I just don’t think that “deals” matter all that much. After all, if unions can’t persuade their members to vote Democratic, then why would a recommendation from Kucinich or Richardson carry any weight?

I am an Edwards supporter but inclined to believe that his campaign is now effectively over, unless something totally unexpected happens in New Hampshire. I only hope he does not disappear after February, although I certainly don’t see Obama including him on his ticket.

]]> By: snuzy mandrake http://susiemadrak.com/2008/01/04/10/04/paradigm-shift-2/#comment-134139 snuzy mandrake Fri, 04 Jan 2008 19:10:22 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/2008/01/04/10/04/paradigm-shift-2/#comment-134139 i'm happy with the results. the only one of the big three i don't want to win is clinton. a third place showing for her is perfect, IMHO. i’m happy with the results. the only one of the big three i don’t want to win is clinton. a third place showing for her is perfect, IMHO.

]]> By: Izquierdo http://susiemadrak.com/2008/01/04/10/04/paradigm-shift-2/#comment-134138 Izquierdo Fri, 04 Jan 2008 18:31:42 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/2008/01/04/10/04/paradigm-shift-2/#comment-134138 What were the final (100% of precincts) results? I can't find them anywhere. Last I saw, Edwards was a small fraction of a percent ahead of Clinton. What were the final (100% of precincts) results?
I can’t find them anywhere.
Last I saw, Edwards was a small fraction of a percent
ahead of Clinton.

]]> By: Ron http://susiemadrak.com/2008/01/04/10/04/paradigm-shift-2/#comment-134132 Ron Fri, 04 Jan 2008 17:07:06 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/2008/01/04/10/04/paradigm-shift-2/#comment-134132 Basically I see Obama and Edwards tied. Obama was put over the top by Richardson and Kucincih caucus goers switching to Obama as a result of some deal. While everyone reported on Richardson and Kucinich's directions to their supporters to switch to Obama, no one, and I mean no one, has noted what the impact was (Obama by only 3.5%). The more I think about it, Obama would seem to have lost to Edwards without Kucinich and Richardson's deals. Wonder what was offered in return? Why no discussion of this among the blogs, even lefties? Inquiring minds want to know. Basically I see Obama and Edwards tied. Obama was put over the top by Richardson and Kucincih caucus goers switching to Obama as a result of some deal. While everyone reported on Richardson and Kucinich’s directions to their supporters to switch to Obama, no one, and I mean no one, has noted what the impact was (Obama by only 3.5%). The more I think about it, Obama would seem to have lost to Edwards without Kucinich and Richardson’s deals. Wonder what was offered in return? Why no discussion of this among the blogs, even lefties? Inquiring minds want to know.

]]> By: PSoTD http://susiemadrak.com/2008/01/04/10/04/paradigm-shift-2/#comment-134128 PSoTD Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:04:38 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/2008/01/04/10/04/paradigm-shift-2/#comment-134128 I'm neither happy or unhappy with the result, except happy with the dropping of Biden and Dodd out of the race. This is a three person race at this point, and the sooner we can get the debates and media to focus on it as such, the better. I think Edwards' perspective - almost 70% voted for change in the Democratic Iowa Caucus - is useful to remember, and preparatory for the next pivot. I'm not sure Edwards can beat Obama, but I see a clearer path for him than for Hillary beating Obama at all if this gets to be a two person race. The question is whether this will become a two person race, up to Convention day. I’m neither happy or unhappy with the result, except happy with the dropping of Biden and Dodd out of the race. This is a three person race at this point, and the sooner we can get the debates and media to focus on it as such, the better.

I think Edwards’ perspective - almost 70% voted for change in the Democratic Iowa Caucus - is useful to remember, and preparatory for the next pivot. I’m not sure Edwards can beat Obama, but I see a clearer path for him than for Hillary beating Obama at all if this gets to be a two person race.

The question is whether this will become a two person race, up to Convention day.

]]> By: votermom http://susiemadrak.com/2008/01/04/10/04/paradigm-shift-2/#comment-134120 votermom Fri, 04 Jan 2008 14:44:11 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/2008/01/04/10/04/paradigm-shift-2/#comment-134120 Me neither. Me neither.

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