About That Firewall
Feb 25th, 2008 at 5:47 pm by Chris
Yeah, I think it’s pretty well burst into flames. Here are the most recent numbers from Texas.
Obama 50% (+2)
Clinton 46% (-4)
The way these things have gone over the last month or so, those numbers will likely be even worse for Clinton by the time of the actual vote. Senator Clinton is still hanging on to a statistically significant lead in Ohio, though that lead has been shrinking. This thing is pretty well over, though I’m still selfishly hoping that the Clinton campaign tries for one last stand in PA.
You americans need changes.
True, dat.
What do you have in mind, exactly?
Yeah, but. As long as democratic voters are (roughly) evenly divided, and the delegates are awarded in a proportional scheme rather than winner-take-all, I don’t see how Texas, Ohio, or Pennsylvania really resolves matters.
Flashback to the 2000 FL recounts, when the media (and the USSC, fucktard division) wanted the election resolved right now!!!1!, rather than following the legal, constitutionally-mandated procedure.
And that worked out so well, didn’t it?
And, BTW, I say this even though I lean ever so slightly in the Obama direction. If Clinton wants to drop out, fine, but I don’t think she should be pressured to drop out prematurely.
I agree Snarki and I hope I didn’t accidentally imply otherwise. She has no obligation to drop out and the calls for her to do so are still quite premature. I don’t think her chances are good, but that doesn’t mean there is no chance at all.
the biggest thing working against clinton if she doesn’t win both texas and ohio are the prior statements of the clinton campaign itself. back when they were trying to minimize obama’s string of victories in smaller states they said that delegate-rich texas and ohio were the states that really mattered. then bill clinton said that hillary had to win both to stay in the race. if she loses texas, bill’s words will be thrown back at her, and there will be a lot of pressure to withdraw.
actually, i think the reason why a clinton withdrawal is all-but-inevitable before it reaches PA is because the republican race is decided now. the powers-that-be in the party were fine with having a drawn-out primary fight so long as the republicans were doing it too. but now that mccain has effectively won, he’s not spending money anymore. because mccain is raising money without spending it, whereas both clinton and obama are still burning cash, there’s a fear that the longer this drags out the more it will hurt the dems in the general election (not to mention the negative themes generated by the race that could be picked up by the mccain campaign in the general).
what that means is that the party big wigs are starting to realize that a long dem primary is likely to be a mccain advantage. so the longer this goes on, the more pressure there will be on the candidate who is behind to bow out. in this case, that’s clinton. and because she set high expectations for the texas/ohio “firewall”, the pressure is only gonna build if she doesn’t win both like she predicted.
Hmmm, Susie takes a break and Chris moves SG into the O-borg. Sigh.
actually, i think the reason why a clinton withdrawal is all-but-inevitable before it reaches PA is because the republican race is decided now. the powers-that-be in the party were fine with having a drawn-out primary fight so long as the republicans were doing it too. but now that mccain has effectively won, he’s not spending money anymore. because mccain is raising money without spending it, whereas both clinton and obama are still burning cash, there’s a fear that the longer this drags out the more it will hurt the dems in the general election (not to mention the negative themes generated by the race that could be picked up by the mccain campaign in the general).
I think there’s some truth to this, and I’d add that I think that a majority of Democratic voters may be ready for this to be over as well. If Clinton somehow loses Ohio, that’s probably a statement to that effect - let’s end this.
I sort of take exception to be labeled part of the O-borg mbw. Please explain. Also, I’m fairly certain that you have posting rights here. If my unrestrained and unthinking support of Obama needs to be balanced out, by all means, do so.
Chris, I dislike them both equally, but I’m not joining the war effort. I’m just disappointed that one of the few O-free zones left on the Left has lost that defining attribute. I’m sorry if I singled your post out. Feel free to delete my comment.
there are other “obama free zones” out there. atrios won’t commit either way, for example. plus there’s a whole universe of blogs that focus on stuff outside the u.s. that have barely mention the contest.
In my defense, I’d argue that this blog hasn’t taken on a particularly pro-Obama stance since Susie handed over the keys. It just has less of an “Obama sucks” thing going on. If anything, there’s less Obama than ever. That said, I’ll try to be more careful that my fairly lukewarm support for Obama doesn’t bubble over too much into the posts, as I don’t want to completely alienate Susie’s readership while she’s away. The Borg thing got to me a little bit because, perhaps inaccurately, I don’t think it’s a fair characterization of my thought process with regards to this election and the candidates involved.
i doubt if the borg thing accurately reflects the thought processes of any actual obama voters. frankly, i think it’s a stupid tactic, rather than addressing obama people and talking to them about the relative pluses and minuses of their candidate, dismissing people as mindless automitons is the best way to lose an argument.
as soon as i read my first “obama cult” article, i realized that obama would probably win the nomination. people don’t resort to stuff like that unless they don’t think they’re winning the substantive debate.