Fun With Numbers
Apr 21st, 2008 at 9:14 pm by Susie
UPDATE: Looks like my imaginary ponies were right! Woo hoo!
You know, I don’t usually do these number posts because I just don’t have the time or patience. But today Booman held forth on what the numbers tell him about tomorrow’s election, and because I’ve lived here my whole life, some of what he wrote didn’t sound right to me. So I thought I’d check it out:
If you look at a map of the Democratic voter registration surge (by zip code) in the five county Philadelphia region, an important pattern emerges. It will help if you know the region and the city. [Ed. note: Remember that, it will come in handy later!] In Philly, registration is through the roof in University City and the rest of West Philly. This is Obama’s strongest area (District 2, Chaka Fattah) in the state. Registration is also extremely high in the North (the blackest area of Philly) and in the Center City, Society Hill, Queens Village area (District 2, Bob Brady) that is socially liberal and filled with urban professionals and artists (the Creative Class). By contrast, registration is low in the Northeast, Fishtown, and deep South Philly (white ethnics, most opposed to Obama).
Uh, that’s “Queen” Village. (It does help if you know the region.) Also, Fishtown is the newest hipster haven. Where’s that surge in Creative Class registrations?
The same pattern holds in Bucks County, where heavily black Morrisville saw a huge spike, in Montgomery County, where heavily black Norristown and Conshohocken saw a huge spike, in Delaware County, where heavily black Chester and Darby saw a huge spike, and Chester Country, where heavily black Coatesville and West Chester saw a huge spike. Overall, the heaviest registration has come from college towns/areas, black neighborhoods, and the Creative Class neighborhoods of Philadelphia.
1) Morrisville isn’t heavily black, unless you call 19.14% “heavily” black.
2) Is Norristown “heavily black”, too? It’s a little closer here. Norristown is the county seat, and I’m pretty sure it’s the most densely populated town in Montgomery County. The racial makeup during the last census was 54.32 % White, 34.80 % Black or African American, 0.20 % Native American, 2.96 % Asian, 0.03 % Pacific Islander, 4.61 % from other races, and 3.07 % from two or more races. 10.49 % of the population were Hispanic or Latino of any race.
So that’s approximately 8,000 Latinos, a group whose members so far have been solid Clinton supporters. Might cut into that Obama margin…
3) Conshohocken isn’t heavily black. Nope. As of the 2000 census, it was 89.88% White, 7.77% African American, 0.08% Native American, 0.84% Asian, 0.01% Pacific Islander, 0.49% from other races, and 0.92% from two or more races. Hispanic or Latino of any race were 1.34% of the population. Since 2000, it has since become somewhat of a yuppie haven for white collar workers commuting to the 202 corporate corridor, coexisting with heavy Italian and Polish populations. (I know - I have family there.) West Conshohocken? Same thing. So if you’re seeing a huge surge in voter registration, well, it might be the “Creative Class” - but the odds sure seem to favor white, working-class voters.
This portends a very high differential turnout of Obama voters to Clinton voters in the five county area. It also portends an historically unprecedented differential turnout of the black/creative class vote over the white ethnic vote.
Ixnay! While I guess anything is possible, Booman was so off on the ethnic makeup of these towns, I don’t know how sound his theory can be. (Of course, he just might get lucky. But it won’t have anything to do with his math skills.)
Hey, this polling prognostication thing is fun!
I have to say, though, I kind of prefer the sound of this guy:
However, like all of the above mentioned folks, I can make shit up with the best of them if I want to, and I can pull imaginary ponies out of my ass. Thus I feel eminently qualified in the 21st Century to tell you, the little people who don’t really matter (at least if you voted for Obama) what’s going to happen. I mean, everyone else is, so I might as well, too.
He’s right. You, too, can pull imaginary ponies out of your ass! Place your bets - what say you?
a “hipster” is NOT the same thing as a member of the so-called “creative class”
if you call a new homeowner in fishtown a hipster they will most likely get pretty offended.
nobody in their right mind would have run a general voter registration drive here if their goal was to elect a progressive reform-style candidate.
this neighborhood is where such candidates go to die.
“nigger” and “spic” are still in the general lexicon deployed by the optimistic and joyful residents of my ‘hood, so I suspect obama will not do well here.
the fishtown local dem committee is totally part of the machine and runs on old school back scratching and patronage.
of course, they endorsed hillary.
I suspect, therefore, that hrc will do quite well here.
but we’ll do what we can to prevent that from happening
If it is true that there was a huge spike in black and “creative class” areas versus others, could it be that white ethnics were already heavily registered to vote? Some bits of data make limited sense without others.
My grandparents were Polish immigrants, and in my family it was assumed that you’d register to vote as soon as you hit legal age, because that’s what conscientious Americans did. Maybe it was too much trouble for the “creative class” to do the same until they found a trendy candidate.
That’s even assuming the term “creative class” is anything more than a bunch of trendy BS.
This is pretty funny. I, uh, was responsible for finding the areas of Montgomery Co. that were 65% or better Democratic in 2004 and doing full on registration there, so I kind of know where the black people and hispanic people live.
But the biggest bellylaugh of all was your characterization of Fishtown. Next you’ll tell me that Olney is Clinton territory.
again,
In my mind the term “creative class” here in fishtown means artists, internet people, skilled craftsmen and women–as opposed to more conventional union laborers, and entrepreneurs that cater to hipsters and gentrifiers.
These people are certainly voters, and they form the backbone of opposition to things like casinos. They are politically involved and they tend to work on issues to fix the neighborhood like tree planting, clean up, getting trash cans, etc.
To claim that they are only voting/registering now because “they found a trendy candidate” is pretty insulting and indicates ignorance on the part of the writer.
People like them were instrumental in getting philly’s mayor–Mike Nutter– elected. The white ethnics of fishtown supported machine boss bob brady or voted for other rich white guy Tom Knox (because many of them would never, ever, vote for a black man.)
During the mayoral election I had the surreal experience of listening to a sound truck drive down the street playing a tape that said “vote for tom knox!” as it drove past some of the local scamps added their own analysis/encouragement “’cause he’s not a nigger!”
the longtime residents–
“urban ethnics” (but don’t we call them “optimistic and joyful non-bitter voters” now?) are pretty much registered already, and they support the machine. fishtown provides the votes that kill the candidacies of local reformers.
They tend to pull the lever for whomever the union tells them to vote for…
That is why if you were smart you would NOT run a registration drive here.
As I said, fishtown will go for Hillary I am sure.
fishtown will never be anything more than……blue collar & beer drinking phillies fans
the urban ethnics hardly sounds diverse
Issues? We don’t need no stinking issues! We have polls, and we can divide the fuck out of people so they will never trust anyone again.
Welcome to Republicania, you assholes.
(It’s nice coming late and knowing no one will read what I’ve written.)
I am just glad this shit is out in the open now. Bring it.
What is this, “West Side Story”?