no, because there is tremendous pressure to on them to close it out before the convention. but hey, i guess we’ll find out soon enough who is right.

one more thing i should add: you’re acting as if the rules committee and credentials committee will be viewed as some universal arbitors of legitimacy in this matter. every other institution in this process has been questioned by whichever side has the disadvantage, if it goes on for that long, why wouldn’t those committees in the convention as well? the credentials committee and rules committees are comprised of delegates chosen by a formula that reflects the proportion of pledged delegates that were elected during the primany process. because obama has the lead in pledged delegates by a margin that clinton cannot plausibly make up in the remaining contests, this means that a majority of the committees will probably be obama delegates. the only wild card are the 25 at-large delegates appoined by howard dean. if the pledged delegate count is close enough, they could plausibly be the deciding vote. except that dean himself is opposed to seating the MI and FL delegation. i think it’s highly unlikely that the clinton campaign could win that battle in those committees. once people realize that, the clinton people will question the legitimacy of the committees and, once again, we are faced with a process where the loser argues the process is illegitimate.

the only way to avoid a legitimacy problem is to have a concession prior to the convention. which is why it will happen in june. mark my words.

Probably not the analogy you really want to go for, given the inevitability argument that New England had up until they lost.

superdelegates, as a concept, are not democratic, but they’re all public figures who are mostly themselves elected and want to at least nod in the direction of democratic process.

Which also makes them unlikely to hop to and choose a nominee before the questions about Michigan and Florida are settled, or before the convention. After all, in the six weeks between Texas and Ohio and Pennsylvania, Obama lost some of his sheen; it’s a long, long way between June 3 and the August convention. Either one could fuck up in that time, and despite all the “oh, the long primary means we can’t focus on McCain” handwringing, that’s crap. There’s nothing stopping either one from doing so, except maybe the idea that doing so might give McCain the opportunity to get free press coverage.

i’m not sure, it’s just my prediction.

the reason they haven’t done it yet is because there is some power behind the “let everyone cast their vote” argument. superdelegates, as a concept, are not democratic, but they’re all public figures who are mostly themselves elected and want to at least nod in the direction of democratic process.

The big issue is not losing these states in the general election if we can avoid it. But seriously folks, counting MI votes for Clinton only? That’s not even a reasonable idea.

Would somebody please let NY know?

actually, both primaries and caucuses are undemocratic. the purpose isn’t democracy, it’s to give the appearance of democracy while also rewarding party insiders. even in primaries, there is no concept of one-person, one-vote. districts that have historically voted democratic get a disproportionate number of delegates, and districts that have historically voted republican are penalized with fewer delegates. your vote counts more if you happen to live in a place that voted for kerry in 2004. if the system were about democracy, it would be a simple popular vote. we wouldn’t even be talking about delegates.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: neither one of these candidates can honorably drop out unless the other one wins fair and square

yes, and the way you win under the current system is by getting a majority of the delegates. if the supers all pledge on june 4th then we will have a fair and square win under the current system.

the system is crap, don’t get me wrong. but at this point is really is impossible to change it because every reform is viewed through the lense of who it will hurt or help in this current primary battle.

I’d like to see that, yes. One of the big problems in figuring out who’s voted for whom comes about because we have caucuses, and the caucus totals haven’t all been released yet because reporting is done on a state-by-state, voluntary basis.

Better that we do away with caucuses entirely, IMO. They’re undemocratic, subject to manipulation, and unless there’s some kind of standardized process for counting the delegates and recordkeeping, difficult to keep track of.

so now we’re left with a pre-convention concession or a train wreck.

Or a floor fight. Or having the MI/FL delegations seated by the Credentials Committee. Or having the Rules Committee reverse its decisions to strip delegates, whether they reinstate them all or simply penalize at the standard 50% level.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: neither one of these candidates can honorably drop out unless the other one wins fair and square. They’re both engaged in historic candidacies, and they both are representing something larger than themselves. The winner *must* be seen to be legitimate, and you don’t get legitimacy if you force your opponent out prematurely or if you decide not to bother counting entire states or you try to get the superdelegates to make a decision before they’re ready.

I realize that the DNC would like nothing more than to avoid a showdown over Florida and Michigan by having Hillary drop out, but what they don’t understand is that she *can’t* drop out until Obama beats her, because otherwise it looks like she’s letting the bullies in the party push her aside to make room for a younger, less experienced man. And since he can’t seem to get it together to beat her, the party is going to have to deal with all of these hard questions that they’d rather have avoided.

Frankly, Howard Dean could have avoided a lot of pain had he just gone ahead and done a revote in Michigan.

of course not. as i said above in comment #10 the only way out to avoid the legitimacy problem is if obama or clinton concedes before the convention–and i suspect that is what will happen. after june 3rd the supers will commit, thus clinching it for someone and thus avoid the rules committee fight. there used to be another way, holding a revote in MI and FL, but my understanding is that it’s too late for that now. so now we’re left with a pre-convention concession or a train wreck.