It’s A Start, Sort Of
Apr 26th, 2008 at 3:19 pm by Susie
Good idea for Obama, but I don’t know whether it will be as productive for everyone else. Just look at Pennsylvania, where there was also a massive registration drive - a substantial number (I think it was 3-4%) of the new registrants didn’t show up to vote. Pollsters had egg on the face because they greatly overestimated the turnout for Obama.
When you’re talking about down ticket races, it gets even trickier. Those elections rest on a foundation of local political relationships and the people who support the incumbents are unlikely to switch on the basis of a national race. (They did in ‘74, but that was the post-Watergate tidal wave.) So you’re talking about people who are new to the political landscape, and you’re assuming they’re not going to pay attention to local issues and decide for themselves. I’m not so sure:
Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign is planning to unveil a “massive” voter registration drive, one that will reach all 50 states and seeks to boost confidence in him as a potential general election candidate.
A senior campaign official is expected to provide details about the effort in a conference call Friday.
But the candidate himself — or his speechwriters — apparently slipped up and included a reference to the effort in an address to a union group Thursday in Chicago.
“That’s why I’m so proud that today our campaign announced a massive volunteer-led voter registration drive in all 50 states to help ensure every single eligible voter takes part in this election so we can take back Washington for the American people,” Obama said at the Hyatt Regency McCormick Place.
Actually, if they got that many of the new reg out in PA, they did pretty well. Funders are cutting back on voter reg projects for 2008 because a full 50 percent of the people signed up in 2004 didn’t show. Making them into voters requires a hell of a turnout effort as well as just getting them on the rolls.
3-4% of newly registered voters not showing up doesn’t sound particularly bad to me. That would mean that 96-97% of new voters voted when everyone was ecstatic that up to 50% or so of all registered PA Democrats might vote.
While registering more Democrats is good for the party, Obama spending $$ and committing his volunteer network is a clever move on his part to impress the super delegates. The super delegates are almost all highly invested in their own state’s politics, many are running themselves. Obama is sending them a clear message - nominate me and the incredible funding and volunteer machine I have built will create coattails that will benefit you and every Democrat in your state.
It’s excellent strategy on his part since in the end the nomination will be won or lost with the super delegates. Clinton will not be able to respond in kind because she just doesn’t have the immense cash reserves his campaign does, and she needs every cent she does have to run her campaign.
i’m afraid this also means that the Obama ticket will rain on the down-ticket primary voters too.
which candidate for the indiana 1st through 9th? the obama endorser or the clinton endorser or the neither-endorser? the triangulating centerist incumbent or the progressive insurgent? repeat for the north carolina 1st through 13th, and elsewhere.
So how’s that 50-state strategy workin’ out for ya in Florida and Michigan?
Well, pollster.com combines many polls using statistically rigorous methods that take sample size and margin of error of the individual polls into account, and they show Obama at about +6% over Clinton running against McCain in Michigan and trailing her badly in Florida (they both poll below McCain in Florida).
All in all better than I would have expected given the constant allegations against him being promoted by Clinton in those two states while he has done zero campaigning in either state.