Comments on: The King of Spain http://susiemadrak.com/2008/05/08/19/47/the-king-of-spain/ Keeping a jaundiced eye on the corporate media. Fri, 16 May 2008 11:04:11 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5 By: snuzy mandrake http://susiemadrak.com/2008/05/08/19/47/the-king-of-spain/#comment-143009 snuzy mandrake Fri, 09 May 2008 20:11:35 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/?p=24773#comment-143009 <i>May 31 is after May 20.</i> by may 20th obama's lead in delegates is expected to be so wide, even if the FL and MI delegates get seated, he'll still win. obama is about 170 delegates ahead right now. if you count FL delegates and MI, <i>and even if you give obama no delegates from MI because his name was not on the ballot, that only gives clinton a total gain of 114. (clinton would get 113 for FL and 73 for MI whereas obama would get 72 from FL and 0 from MI), even doing it that way, obama will be ahead and his lead is unlikely to change. that's the most optimistic outcome of the may 31st rules committee meeting from the clinton perspective. it's also quite possible that the committee would credit obama with the "uncommitted" MI vote (which would give obama 55 more delegates and reduce clinton's net to 58), or penalize the two states by half (which would reduce clinton's net gain to 57), or both (which would reduce clinton's net to 29.5). but even under the most optimistic outcome of the may 31st meeting, clinton won't get enough delegates to bridge the gap. the remaining states don't have enough delegates at stake and the proportionate allocation of delegates make it almost mathematically impossible for clinton to get very many even if she wins by a big % margin of the vote. for example, clinton's "big win" in PA only netted her 12 delegates. and that was PA, with 158 pledged delegates. the six remaining states </i><i>combined</i> only add up to 274, plus clinton is only prejected to win three of them. but let's say she wins all of them with the same proportionate deleagate award as PA. that would give her about a 20 delegates. add that to the 114 delegates she would get from the most pro-clinton result of the rules committee and she still hasn't bridged obama's 170 delegate lead. no matter how you slice it, even if MI and FL are seated under the scenario most favorable to clinton, the numbers simply don't work. by may 20th, obama probably will have enough to win under every plausible scenario. May 31 is after May 20.

by may 20th obama’s lead in delegates is expected to be so wide, even if the FL and MI delegates get seated, he’ll still win. obama is about 170 delegates ahead right now. if you count FL delegates and MI, and even if you give obama no delegates from MI because his name was not on the ballot, that only gives clinton a total gain of 114. (clinton would get 113 for FL and 73 for MI whereas obama would get 72 from FL and 0 from MI), even doing it that way, obama will be ahead and his lead is unlikely to change.

that’s the most optimistic outcome of the may 31st rules committee meeting from the clinton perspective. it’s also quite possible that the committee would credit obama with the “uncommitted” MI vote (which would give obama 55 more delegates and reduce clinton’s net to 58), or penalize the two states by half (which would reduce clinton’s net gain to 57), or both (which would reduce clinton’s net to 29.5).

but even under the most optimistic outcome of the may 31st meeting, clinton won’t get enough delegates to bridge the gap. the remaining states don’t have enough delegates at stake and the proportionate allocation of delegates make it almost mathematically impossible for clinton to get very many even if she wins by a big % margin of the vote. for example, clinton’s “big win” in PA only netted her 12 delegates. and that was PA, with 158 pledged delegates. the six remaining states combined only add up to 274, plus clinton is only prejected to win three of them. but let’s say she wins all of them with the same proportionate deleagate award as PA. that would give her about a 20 delegates. add that to the 114 delegates she would get from the most pro-clinton result of the rules committee and she still hasn’t bridged obama’s 170 delegate lead.

no matter how you slice it, even if MI and FL are seated under the scenario most favorable to clinton, the numbers simply don’t work. by may 20th, obama probably will have enough to win under every plausible scenario.

]]> By: zuzu http://susiemadrak.com/2008/05/08/19/47/the-king-of-spain/#comment-142982 zuzu Fri, 09 May 2008 16:26:44 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/?p=24773#comment-142982 <i>by may 20th there won’t be any metrics left that favor clinton</i> May 31 is after May 20. <i>the rest had pulled their names as the party suggested</i> Oh, that's a new variation. Please provide a cite for the party suggesting such a thing. by may 20th there won’t be any metrics left that favor clinton

May 31 is after May 20.

the rest had pulled their names as the party suggested

Oh, that’s a new variation. Please provide a cite for the party suggesting such a thing.

]]> By: madmatt http://susiemadrak.com/2008/05/08/19/47/the-king-of-spain/#comment-142978 madmatt Fri, 09 May 2008 15:54:34 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/?p=24773#comment-142978 As a voter from Michigan, I object to Hillary getting any votes by scamming the system...she was the only big name on the ticket, the rest had pulled their names as the party suggested even then she only got to 60% as the default name. She now thinks that switching rules she had agreed to is ok...maybe she should just run as a rethug...she has certainly taken on their campaign strategies!! As a voter from Michigan, I object to Hillary getting any votes by scamming the system…she was the only big name on the ticket, the rest had pulled their names as the party suggested even then she only got to 60% as the default name. She now thinks that switching rules she had agreed to is ok…maybe she should just run as a rethug…she has certainly taken on their campaign strategies!!

]]> By: lbd http://susiemadrak.com/2008/05/08/19/47/the-king-of-spain/#comment-142938 lbd Fri, 09 May 2008 11:31:21 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/?p=24773#comment-142938 It's like a rerun of Bush/Gore 2000. Bush started appointing Cabinet members long before the Supreme Court crowned him. It’s like a rerun of Bush/Gore 2000. Bush started appointing Cabinet members long before the Supreme Court crowned him.

]]> By: Nancy http://susiemadrak.com/2008/05/08/19/47/the-king-of-spain/#comment-142933 Nancy Fri, 09 May 2008 07:02:25 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/?p=24773#comment-142933 hehehe. thanks for this post, susie. i gave away my TV a long time ago, but i've recently noticed kaiser permanente commercials popping up frequently on the radio. now i wonder why that's happening at the same time that our corrupt-ass media is declaring hillary out of the race. HMMMMM... yeah, i wonder. hehehe. thanks for this post, susie. i gave away my TV a long time ago, but i’ve recently noticed kaiser permanente commercials popping up frequently on the radio. now i wonder why that’s happening at the same time that our corrupt-ass media is declaring hillary out of the race. HMMMMM… yeah, i wonder.

]]> By: sister of ye http://susiemadrak.com/2008/05/08/19/47/the-king-of-spain/#comment-142929 sister of ye Fri, 09 May 2008 04:35:35 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/?p=24773#comment-142929 Maybe Obama should declare himself Marie of Romania. Maybe Obama should declare himself Marie of Romania.

]]> By: lambert strether http://susiemadrak.com/2008/05/08/19/47/the-king-of-spain/#comment-142927 lambert strether Fri, 09 May 2008 04:26:45 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/?p=24773#comment-142927 I like the idea of Obama declaring himself the King of the Two Sicilies. Of course, Hillary's Queen of the Three Sicilies, but I'm sure she'll give one to Obama... I like the idea of Obama declaring himself the King of the Two Sicilies.

Of course, Hillary’s Queen of the Three Sicilies, but I’m sure she’ll give one to Obama…

]]> By: memyself http://susiemadrak.com/2008/05/08/19/47/the-king-of-spain/#comment-142910 memyself Fri, 09 May 2008 02:38:38 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/?p=24773#comment-142910 Uh huh - white_n_az, if you buy the hilarious McSame team spin that the term "losing his bearings" is a reference to age then you have clearly lost your bearings. The term is a very good description of McCain's sudden jerky turn away from the course he claimed his campaign would take and it fits extremely well with the point Obama was making. 2025 is the number until and unless the DNC officially changes it. The earliest that can happen is May 31st. If Obama achieves 2025 anytime before that he would be making a huge strategic error to NOT declare that he has won. Based on team Obama's enormous outmanuvering of team Clinton on all things strategy, I don't expect that. If Obama achieves the current defined and agreed upon winning margin and makes sure it hits the news with real force the DNC will be even more disinclined than they are now to take any action that reverses a win that has already been achieved by the rules everyone agreed upon. FL and MI would then be seated, but not in a way that will change the outcome. Uh huh - white_n_az, if you buy the hilarious McSame team spin that the term “losing his bearings” is a reference to age then you have clearly lost your bearings. The term is a very good description of McCain’s sudden jerky turn away from the course he claimed his campaign would take and it fits extremely well with the point Obama was making.

2025 is the number until and unless the DNC officially changes it. The earliest that can happen is May 31st. If Obama achieves 2025 anytime before that he would be making a huge strategic error to NOT declare that he has won. Based on team Obama’s enormous outmanuvering of team Clinton on all things strategy, I don’t expect that.

If Obama achieves the current defined and agreed upon winning margin and makes sure it hits the news with real force the DNC will be even more disinclined than they are now to take any action that reverses a win that has already been achieved by the rules everyone agreed upon. FL and MI would then be seated, but not in a way that will change the outcome.

]]> By: Joe http://susiemadrak.com/2008/05/08/19/47/the-king-of-spain/#comment-142909 Joe Fri, 09 May 2008 02:27:04 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/?p=24773#comment-142909 Naz: do you actually think OB will allow MI or FL to be seated if it hurt his chances or made him look foolish? Looking foolish is reserved for those that supported the DNC decision and now wants to say OB is disenfranchising them...what do we call that??? Flop-flip, floppity flippy, flipp-offity floppish...? oh, you know what I mean! Naz: do you actually think OB will allow MI or FL to be seated if it hurt his chances or made him look foolish? Looking foolish is reserved for those that supported the DNC decision and now wants to say OB is disenfranchising them…what do we call that??? Flop-flip, floppity flippy, flipp-offity floppish…? oh, you know what I mean!

]]> By: white_n_az http://susiemadrak.com/2008/05/08/19/47/the-king-of-spain/#comment-142905 white_n_az Fri, 09 May 2008 02:05:31 +0000 http://susiemadrak.com/?p=24773#comment-142905 memyself... <a href="http://thepage.time.com/memo-from-mccain-adviser-salter/" rel="nofollow">Time</a> By the way...2025 isn't the number once FL and MI delegates are accepted which appears to be what is going to happen. Obama risks looking like a fool if he actually tries to declare himself on May 20. memyself…
Time

By the way…2025 isn’t the number once FL and MI delegates are accepted which appears to be what is going to happen. Obama risks looking like a fool if he actually tries to declare himself on May 20.

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