I Can’t Believe I’m Doing This
May 21st, 2008 at 12:08 am by Chris
While Lambert and I don’t see eye to eye on really anything with regards to the Democratic primary, I think Brad really missed what Lambert was trying to get at here. Brad thinks that Lambert is mocking the size of Obama’s Portland rally vs. Kerry’s Philadelphia rally. That’s not quite right. Lambert’s point, I think, is that huge rallies don’t necessarily foretell electoral victories. He uses John Kerry’s massive rally in Center City Philadelphia, held just a little over a week prior to the 2004 general election, as an example.
Brad uses an apple and an orange diagram to explain that rally turnouts in a primary vs. rally turnouts just before a general are two totally different things. This is true, but it was never really the point. Lambert’s mistake isn’t so much an apples vs. oranges issue. Rather, he doesn’t recognize an apple for an apple.
If I recall correctly, Kerry won Pennsylvania in 2004, largely due to turnout in Philadelphia and the Pennsylvania suburbs. Kerry held a massive rally shortly before the election, energized a big pile of already motivated people, and he won. That was good.
Granted, his massive Philadelphia rally didn’t hold much sway in Ohio, but that was never really the point . I’m really not sure why Ohio residents don’t pay attention to the goings on in Philadelphia, but imagine that it’s probably similar to the reason I don’t give a fuck about what’s happening in Columbus.
I gather that Obama is likely to win Oregon. I imagine that the idea behind his massive rally in Portland was to energize his voters and attract a few more. This is a tried and true strategy. It actually works and it’s nothing to be scared of.
Listen, if massive rallies in Philadelphia, and various Pacific Northwestern locales, was the hurdle that presidential candidates had to pass in order to win the presidency, then we could just disband the Republican party right here and now. Their core voters could enjoy their hatred of civil society, civil rights, and whatever boogie man nation is the boogie man nation flavor de jour from the comfort of their own homes. Sadly, that seems unlikely.
But, whatever. Lambert actually has a reasonable point. It’s just that his example is for shit. If you’re going to skewer a dude, skewer him on what he’s actually wrong about.
This will make more sense if you read the byline.
While Lambert and I don’t see eye to eye on really anything with regards to the Democratic primary
what the hell are you talking about, susie? you and lambert are both pro-clinton all the way!!!
i’m so surprised and confused by this post. i wish there was something i could read to clear up my confusion…
So, Susie lets you post here.
That must mean, Susie can see other points of view?
I’m confused.
It’s all very confused and confusing, and nothing is set in stone anywhere. That makes everyone afraid.
I hope a Democrat wins the general election in November, decisively.
And it’s small k.
Also, it’s hard to tell what’s actual support for a candidate when a very popular group (The Decemberists) gives a free 45-minute concert before the speeches. I remember thinking the same thing about the Kerry rallies where Bruce played first…
I sometimes wonder if she doesn’t know how to delete my account.
Yes, I read in comments at Talk Left that you can get 75,000 people to stand outside and watch a dead squirrel decompose on a nice day in Portland. Maybe not the most plausible explanation, but whatever.
They have nice days in Portland?
About the popularity of that band, it seems the last show they played in Portland, on the 3rd of May, was in a venue that holds 778 people when the chairs are removed. Now, just a few weeks later, they have become so wildly popular that, in the very same town, they are suddenly able to draw 75,000 people. That’s fucking amazing. If I hadn’t read it here, and on an assortment of right wing blogs, I never would have believed it.
You miss Lambert’s point. He is mocking the 75,000 folks in Portland, OR. I’ll bet they are all elitists who think the gas tax holiday is lousy public policy, but they are elitists who don’t need the 9 cents a week it would likely provide. Oh, & they listened to The Decembrists, clearly an elitist band, clearly. What we need is a hard working white worker in the White House, that will make everything all better. It really will be better because she used to live there, just like Bu$hCo II. Now I can sleep at night. Thanks Lambert, for giving up on the working class gas holiday. What happened to your fervor for that piece of pandering? Oh, you’ve moved on, I see.
I like comment #1