Oil Bubble?
May 27th, 2008 at 9:24 am by Chris
On a somewhat related note, I’ve been wondering lately if anybody has a good idea of what the price per gallon needs to reach before cities like Phoenix begin to fail. When my brother lived there and I’d go out to visit, I would sometimes drive him to work in the morning so that I could use his van during the day. I was frankly stunned by the length of the commute. There is no density and the design of the city is such that mass transit wouldn’t appear to be even remotely feasible. If some of the more recent speculation that gas will reach $8 a gallon within a few years proves accurate, can a place like that remain viable?
At $8 a gallon, housing prices would probably crumble into dust, because people would be spending what they have for food, and getting to work (if there is work).
I’m wondering if sheep for lawn maintenance and horses for commutes will be coming up, in my rural community. People were complaining about spending $50 for mowing their lawns (remember we have septic systems here, that have to be kept free of invasive root systems).
I suspect that it’s a race between the price of water and the price of oil — one or the other or both will soon curb Phoenix’s growth.
$6 oil may end public education as we know it. What school district is going to be able to afford those yellow buses along with higher heating and cooling costs….and lets not forget lunch.
Maybe another question needs to be asked first: why does Phoenix exist where it is in the first place? In spite of fearful obstacles, New Orleans has been a vital port city for almost 300 years, and will continue to be for a long time to come. What’s Phoenix got? If it has a compelling reason for being, somehow it will adjust. Between subsidized energy and the West’s legacy of “water runs uphill to money”, there would be a whole lotta adjustin’ goin’ on. If only Carter had been a more adept politician, we’d have had a lot more time to start making these adjustments. Oh well.
I don’t know the answer to that, but I can tell you that Austin’s going to have trouble soon. My friends were telling me that the temperature’s been over 100 degrees a few months too early, and the electricity to run all that central air doesn’t grow on trees.
And man oh man is that a car culture city.
At $8 a gallon, will we jump off the dollar and go to barter? Because at $8, I doubt much of the economy will be afloat.
Assuming it happens really soon, that is.
I don’t know what will happen to Phoenix. I grew up there, and now live about two hours north of there. I hate driving around in the Valley — it’s just too spread out. It’s hot (what will happen with trying to keep things cool?) and it’s become a suburban nightmare. The cheaper homes are farther out from where most people work, so more people live farther from their workplace. Even then, there’s no main office area where most people go to work, so there’s no real consistent commute patterns other than from “farther out” to “closer in”. It’s crazy-commuting time when in the Phoenix area.
Water is going to be the major problem. I have long suspected that Phoenix was not sustainable. Furthermore if gas is $8 a gallon, imagine the cost of electricity for all that air conditioning.