Reason and logic have nothing to do with it. If it did, Bush wouldn’t be ending his second term:
WASHINGTON — The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an “enthusiasm gap” that has dogged the GOP all year.
McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican’s biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.
I think we’re gettin’ played again, pure and simple. Somewhere, Rove and Schmidt are rubbing their porky little hands together in evil glee.
At this point, I just wish they’d drop the whole Kabuki–it’s gotta be getting tiresome for them, even–and just say “we are your masters, now and forever, and you will do as we say.” But then, people might actually take to the streets.
isn’t a convention bounce called a “bounce” because it’s fleeting?
it’s odd that people are getting excited about this. history suggests that his numbers will fall again pretty soon.
Aren’t all polls inherently unrepresentative and inaccurate because they focus more on land lines than on cell phones?
Or do they somehow adjust for the underrepresented demographic?
they try to adjust for cell phones. but no one knows if the adjustment works because in order to make an adjustment like that you have to know how the people not being called because they have no land line would answer.
at best it’s an educated guess. at worse, they’re just relying on inaccurate stereotypes. the stererotypes are that landlineless people are younger and more minority than the overall population–which would mean obama is probably underrepresented by the polls. but who knows if that’s actually true, or if the polling firms are overestimating the amount that he is underrepresented.