La La La, I Can’t Hear You
Jul 22nd, 2006 at 8:18 pm by Susie
Ken Silverstein at Harpers:
I reported in May that despite the deteriorating situation in Iraq, no National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) has been produced on that country since the summer of 2004. The last NIE, a classified document that the CIA describes as “the most authoritative written judgment concerning a national security issue,†was rejected by the Bush Administration (after being leaked to the New York Times) as being too negative, though its grim assessment subsequently proved to be highly accurate.
The situation has gotten even darker since my initial story—a United Nations report cited in Wednesday’s New York Times found that an average of more than 100 Iraqi civilians were killed each day in June—and I’ve learned from two sources that some senior figures at the CIA, along with a number of Iraq analysts, have been pushing to produce a new NIE. They’ve been stonewalled, however, by John Negroponte, the administration’s Director of National Intelligence, who knows that any honest take on the situation would produce an NIE even more pessimistic than the 2004 version. That could create problems on the Hill and, if it is leaked as the last one was, with the public as well.
“What do you call the situation in Iraq right now?†asked one person familiar with the situation. “The analysts know that it’s a civil war, but there’s a feeling at the top that [using that term] will complicate matters.†Negroponte, said another source regarding the potential impact of a pessimistic assessment, “doesn’t want the president to have to deal with that.â€
It would probably be to difficult for any US government department to produce a reality assessment on the ground in Iraq. The US army has lost control on the ground despite what US media would portray to the US masses. In fact reliable sources on the ground in Iraq are reporting a massive build up of guerrilla forces pouring into Baghdad at the same time as US forces are being rushed back into the capital. What these movements mean is anyone’s guess? But an all out assault on “The Green Zone” might not be out of the question. Mehdi army units are also building up in the north of the capital. Could an Iraqi version of the TET offensive be building? While the US government is distracted by events in Israel/Lebanon could Sunni/Shia forces be about to take advantage? I’m sure Iran would like nothing better than to see helicopters deperately airlifting out shit scared US embassy staff as the “hordes” pour over the wall.