Somegirl sent this in:
Major retailers in New York, in areas of New England, and on the West Coast are limiting purchases of flour, rice, and cooking oil as demand outstrips supply. There are also anecdotal reports that some consumers are hoarding grain stocks.
At a Costco Warehouse in Mountain View, Calif., yesterday, shoppers grew frustrated and occasionally uttered expletives as they searched in vain for the large sacks of rice they usually buy.
“Where’s the rice?” an engineer from Palo Alto, Calif., Yajun Liu, said. “You should be able to buy something like rice. This is ridiculous.”
The bustling store in the heart of Silicon Valley usually sells four or five varieties of rice to a clientele largely of Asian immigrants, but only about half a pallet of Indian-grown Basmati rice was left in stock. A 20-pound bag was selling for $15.99.
“You can’t eat this every day. It’s too heavy,” a health care executive from Palo Alto, Sharad Patel, grumbled as his son loaded two sacks of the Basmati into a shopping cart. “We only need one bag but I’m getting two in case a neighbor or a friend needs it,” the elder man said.
The Patels seemed headed for disappointment, as most Costco members were being allowed to buy only one bag. Moments earlier, a clerk dropped two sacks back on the stack after taking them from another customer who tried to exceed the one-bag cap.
“Due to the limited availability of rice, we are limiting rice purchases based on your prior purchasing history,” a sign above the dwindling supply said.
Fun!
Not good at all.
I haven’t seen it yet, but I will stock up as I can nonetheless.
There’s a lot you can get at the Greenmarket that’s been grown locally, but the New York region is not known for its grain production.
I probably have enough rice in the pantry to last until we move to Europe, and seeing that I’m not eating wheat right now, I guess I’m lucky. I am, however, more concerned about being able to buy my son his gluten-free breads, so will stock up on them.
I did notice big bags of rice in my supermarket. Since I’m only a couple of hours from Sillycon Valley, I think I’ll keep that location undisclosed and prevent the yuppies from scoping up the locals’ food stocks.
I can’t approve of the this panic-buyng & hoarding — it will just jack up the price more.
The biggest cause of food shortage and price increases like this is due to the overwhelming stupidity of the average consumer. We create these shortages and increases because of unfounded panic and greed. I see this in Florida every year there is a hurricane. People start talking gas shortage and next thing you know everyone is filling their tanks as soon as they go a couple miles. The gas stations are getting the same shipped to them, but the consumer goes in to such a frenzy that they cause the one thing they are trying to avoid. Wise up people lets not be the cause of the problem we are desperately trying to avoid and blame on others.
There is a grain shortage coming to the world this year. I have been doing research on this subject for the past month and I found most people did not know or even care about it. But just let Wal-Mart and Costco announce that they are limiting the amount of rice you can buy when you shop at their stores and now North America is paying attention.
China has just experienced the worst winter weather that nation has had in 90 years. They are fixing to have a food production melt-down. In China’s history, when they have a dramatic weather-related crop failure like they will have this year, within ten years there is civil unrest, civil war and then regime change. But you say the Communists will never allow it to happen. The issue is, China has not had this drastic of a weather-food problem during the 60 years the Communist have control that country. When this happens the Communists will not know how to handle it.
China is the largest exporter of fertilizer in the Pacific. They have placed a 135% export tariff on their fertilizer products. I suspect it is not to make more money but rather to try to keep as much fertilizer as they can in their own country because of their coming food production problems.
Some of the biggest wheat exporting countries in the world, such as Argentina, the Ukraine and Kazakhstan have all placed large export tariffs on their grain to try to keep more of it at home. Smaller countries that do not produce grain will be at the mercy of the inflated prices of the world grain market. The price of grain has gone through the roof this year. US wheat was in the $3-$3.50 a bushel price range a year ago. It hit $13 a bushel recently. Soy beans as I write this column is at $13 a bushel.
If you have invested in bio-diesel I hope you did not use your retirement money. I was talking to a professor of agriculture economics who was telling me farmland is selling in Iowa for $5000 to $8000 an acre. My question was, how can you pay for land that expensive. A “house of cards” was used in our conversation. The professor advised me not to cash in my Roth IRA and put the money into ethanol. Of course he also told me he had a thousand acres of his own farmland in corn. So as a grain farmer himself, right now he is riding the positive wave of high grain prices.
The price of fuel to run farm machinery, along with the chemicals that are used on the growing grain are rapidly eating away at the $6 corn or $13 wheat. A contact in South Texas advised me they have started cutting wheat down there. As this year’s new crop goes to market, the price will drop some.
One of the other problems is the amount of grain in storage in the US. Twenty five years ago this country had as much as 115 days supply of grain in the silos and elevators across the nation. We are now approaching a 50-day supply of grain. “What if” there is a meltdown in China and the rest of the grain producing work hoards its grain? Is the US somehow honor bound to sell off or worst yet be expected to give away its grain to those who have none?
The “world” is always unhappy when the US takes action against some country that most rational people know needs to be brought to heel, but out of the other side of their mouth they truly expect the US to be the policeman to this planet. If this grain issue gets worse, is the US expected to be the baker and soup kitchen to the world?
Grain has become very valuable. There are already cases of grain rustling in Oklahoma. Grain farmers are having to put all their grain under lock and key. Criminals are driving trucks right up to farmer’s grain bins and filling the bed with stolen wheat. A farmer friend of mine in Virginia has all of her animal feed locked up and she keeps the gates to her farm locked. She cannot afford even a pickup load of feed to go missing in the middle of the night. Sadly, somewhere in the country a dope user will make the front page of the newspapers after he is shot trying to steal chicken feed to support his drug habit. I did go to Sam’s Club and buy my limit of rice. I also figured if I only had rice to eat in an emergence it would take 1100 pounds to keep me fed for a year.
24 Apr 2008
Major Van Harl USAF Ret.
vanharl@aol.com
EVEN THE QUAKERS OWN FIREARMS
In 1997 I found myself with the Wichita Falls, Texas police department (PD). The Colonel (my wife, then Major) was stationed at Sheppard Air Force Base in that same town. I knew Y2K was coming and all the potential problems that were suspected to follow the possible melt down of the world’s computer system. Having a strong background in emergency management or what we call in the Air Force “Disaster Preparedness,” naturally I asked as a new member of the PD, what their emergency plans for the city were. I was handed a large set of books that spelled out everything the police, firefighters and the rest of the City of Wichita Falls was to do in time of crisis.
The city plans turned out to be a completely plagiarized copy of the then, Air Force 355-1 disaster preparedness regulation that I had worked with my entire military career. All they did was change the names, locations and contact information. I had developed a seminar on emergency preparedness for the urban family and I suggested to my chain of command that the PD might make the seminar available to the citizens of the city.
At first there was no real interest but the city was receiving matching Federal funds (at that time) to pay the salary for a city employee to hold an emergency management position. The issue was, that person worked in the city’s main administration office and I could never determine what, if any emergency preparedness actions or training he accomplished. On my own time I started taking FEMA emergency management courses to expand my civilian credibility. Eventually I was authorized to teach emergency preparedness classes.
I suspect the real reason was, I had to submit documentation after each class and after each FEMA course I finished. This was being sent to the Feds to help justify the matching funds the city was getting. In the national press there were fears of civil break down when Y2K hit and that the police might not be able to handle the potential problems. I was never told not to discuss the private ownership of firearms in my emergency preparedness classes, but I subliminally understood I was not to tell the people in my class what I really felt; everyone should have a firearm in their home.
Inevitably without me bringing up the issue of firearms, someone in the class would ask the question. Instead of telling them how I really felt; you should all go out, buy multiple rifles, at least one good pump shotgun and lots of ammo, I would tell them “even Quakers own guns.” I would continue with the fact that many of the non-violence based religions in our country, such as the Amish, Mennonites, Quakers and the Hudderites all own firearms in their cultures. They don’t own handguns and they have no plans to use firearms against their fellow man, but they have the guns.
First off, these religions come from a farming culture and they hunt for food, but not for sport. To shoot a deer to feed your family is an accepted practice but fox hunting or trophy hunting would be considered wrong in these religious cultures. These religious groups also understand that while you may be able to rationalize with a violent person who means to harm your family, you cannot rationalize with a wild animal or a pack of feral domestic dogs. In time of crisis the first thing that happens is either the domestic animals get loose or the owners foolishly believe that because they cannot take care of their cats and dogs, it is better to let them run free, to fend for themselves. The cats will start hunting all the squirrels and rabbits in the area, something you might have considered eating yourself.
The dogs do less well on their own and start to run in packs. First they kill the local live stock and eventually if things get real bad, they turn on humans, who the dogs are not afraid of. Look at the massive animal problem that was generated because of the Katrina hurricane. The last thing you need during a crisis when medical help is very limited is to have a family member mauled by somebody’s pet that has gone “crazy” from fear and starvation. Oh! and ammunition has increased in price 36% in the past 15 months. Even a pacifist does not want a preventable violent death. The world food shortage will bring us interesting times.
28 Apr 2008
Major Van Harl USAF Ret.
vanharl@aol.com
OKLAHOMA CREDIT CARD
Oklahoma credit card, (oklahomacreditcard.com) the first time I heard this term used, I was a little boy visiting my grandfather on his farm in southern Iowa. He was describing how the good old boys from Missouri would come up to Iowa and steal gas from framers’ equipment. What he was talking about was a siphon tube. A hunk of garden hose or a piece of fuel line that was inserted through the gas cap opening of a vehicle and fuel was removed in the middle of the night. In those days it was not for resale it was just a cheap way to get enough gas to drive back home to northern Missouri after a heavy night of drinking in Iowa. In the early 1970s when there was an oil shortage in this country a new type of Oklahoma credit card was used-the ice pick. A person would take a five gallon gas can, place it under a gas tank and punch a hole in the tank with the ice pick. The problem was the average amount of gas stolen was only the five gallons, but the thief would just leave the vehicle tank to continue spilling out on the ground. The real danger was from a smoker walking up and setting the entire crime seen on fire. Nowadays if this ice pick scenario is used, and most of the gas tank drains onto the ground, the fire department has to bring in a hazmet team to clean up the spill. The price of fuel is at the point that stealing gas is becoming a business. I had an entire pick-up truck tank full of gas siphoned off one night when I was a young lieutenant stationed in California back when there were gas restrictions. I called a cop and he advised me I got off lucky. If the thief had used an ice pick not only would I have lost the fuel but I would have the expense of repairing the gas tank. You cannot just take a welding torch to the underside of the gas tank and make a repair. In most cases the gas tank has to be removed from the vehicle before any repairs can be made. In many cases the repair shop will not even want to make the repairs, they will advise you that a new tank is needed. Gas tanks are anywhere from $150 to $300 for an average American made vehicle. When you start pricing non-US made vehicles the cost goes up. Then there is the labor to remove the old tank and install the new one. Some times you get lucky and they can seal the hole in your tank with an epoxy based glue. But even some of those glue repairs can cost $150 or more by the time you pay for the epoxy kit and the labor to make the “minor” repair. “Druggies” have gotten into stealing gas from cars to support their habit. If you find yourself in the position of coming upon a person stealing gas from a vehicle, especially your vehicle, this is not the time to be brave and try to verbally force the “bad guy” to stop. More that one person has been killed in this country over $20, and a stolen five gallon can of gas is worth that and maybe more. Public service vehicles seem to attract fuel thieves. One police department just bought 600, $15-locking gas caps to put on all the squad cars. The problem is when the gas thieves steal from a cop car, not only are they getting the fuel but they are taking that vehicle and officer out of service to the public. More than just a policeman’s inconvenienced could occur do to stolen gas; a life in crisis may be on the line. In the old poem “for want of a nail a kingdom was lost,” today’s version might read “for want of gasoline in a patrol car a child was lost”. Guard your vehicles and fuel well, but remember the ice pick that the thief carries to puncture your gas tank can be turned on you to puncture your chest. Don’t confront a fuel thief, your life is worth more that five gallons of today’s very expensive gas. And remember, the judge is not going to let you off if you use deadly force to protect your fuel supply. To my Oklahoma readers, I am sorry for the derogatory use of your State’s name but I did not make the term up.
Major Van Harl USAF Ret.
vanharl@aol.com
NEEDED GOODS-UP IN PRICE
(Even Spam)
When I was stationed in Korea, Spam was rationed in the Air Force commissary. For the average Airman shopping at Osan Air Base a limit on Spam was no real inconvenience. As I recall I never bought a can the entire year I was posted there. However many of the GIs were married or living with local Korean nationals and in the early 1980s refrigeration was not always found in Korean homes. Spam was meat in a can that was already cooked and you did not have to have a refrigerator. Spam was first introduced to Koreans at the end of WW II when US troops moved in to occupy Korean. When the Korean War broke in 1950 the food American Marines and Soldiers who arrived to stop the communists were eating, was Spam left over from the last war. Spam became trading material for a GI who wanted something on the local economy. When I was stationed in Alaska every “bush” home had Spam stored away in that log cabin. Spam just went up in price this past week, by 7-10% for two reasons: the cost of production increases and the fact that people are buying more Spam. The increase in Spam buying is not because of a sudden change in US diet habits or a new found love of the salty ham products. Life is going to get very interesting in the next 12 to 18 months. Having non-perishable food stored in the home will become an asset. Sure you can buy all the rice, pasta, beans and canned soap you want but the US is a meat eating society. Except for vegetarians, try to find someone who is willing to go a week without meat in their diet. Yes in time of crisis you will eat whatever you can find. As my father the old Navy Master Chief always says “if you are hungry enough you will eat fish heads.” With a little preplanning maybe you will not have to eat fish heads. I was in Sam’s Club this week and the price of rice has gone up again. On American rice, which there is no shortage, rice has gone up 56% in the last four weeks. Back when Y2K was supposed to be coming, my mother helped me “cold-pack” beef. We cut roasts into small chunks and canned them the same way you can jelly. It was a lot of work, but it was good eating. When the year 2000 hit and there were no problems, we just slowly ate the canned beef. Slowly because it was so good and I did not want to run out too quickly. Remember whatever you store in quantity you have to either use up or get rid of at some point. Kimberly-Clark the giant paper company has announced a 6-8% price increase to go into effect this summer, this on top of a 7% increase in February of 2008. There are a lot of things you can do without in times of crisis, but I would suggest bathroom tissue and feminine hygiene products are not ones you care to forgo. The average American uses 98 rolls of bathroom tissue a year. That is a very conservative number and it you have children they could put you over the edge in this area. Take away paper towels from the American family and there could be major conflict in the average household. Back in the 1970s Johnny Carson made a joke in his TV monologue about a shortage of bathroom tissue. Within days there was a run on that product and grocery store shelves were bare. It took Carson apologizing to the public on TV and film footage from various paper companies showing that in fact the factories were in full production and toilet paper was readily available for all Americans. That happened because of a joke, what will happen if there is a perceived or worst yet a real shortage. In time of peril the “government” will tell you everything is fine and do not hoard food or needed items. One of the reason “they” don’t want you to hoard is the average city only has a 1-2 day supply in the stores. If people start hoarding it will only take one day before the have-nots (most Americans) are running low on the basics. Ammunition has gone up 36% in 15 months and some ammo companies just raised the price another 25% in May. Boy Scouts be prepared-non scouts learn from them.
Major Van Harl USAF Ret.
vanharl@aol.com