Jose is currently headed east at 5 mph, and is in the midst of a slow clockwise loop. (Such loops are uncommon, but not unheard of–in 2004, Hurricane Ivan did a much larger clockwise loop that resulted in two U.S. landfalls.) The rather odd forecast track is the result of a mid-level high that will move to the northeast of Jose on Wednesday, forcing it to the south and then west. The slow, looping path Jose is taking in an area of weak steering currents is the sort of behavior that our computer models don’t predict with a high degree of accuracy, and the 5-day error in the latest track forecast is likely to be higher than average. While the 12Z Monday, 0Z Tuesday, and 6Z Tuesday runs of the GFS and European models (and their ensembles) showed a limited threat to the U.S., and an increased threat to Canada next week, we should not be confident in these forecasts until Jose is done with its loop and is positioned in an area of more reliable steering currents. The UKMET model has been consistently predicting over its past three runs that Jose will move through The Bahamas and hit the U.S., but this model is an outlier, and is less likely to be correct than the consensus of our other models. Bottom line: It’s too soon to know what Jose will do, and it is certainly possible that the storm will recurve out to sea without affecting any land areas.
The meteorologists living in Florida have assured the citizens of Florida that Jose is a ‘fish storm’.