1/ The Wagner Group is reported to have effectively been kicked out of Belarus, with thousands of its remaining fighters being bussed back into Russia. The Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, is reported to have refused to finance Wagner's stay in his country. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/JcUJrLJiky
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) August 9, 2023
Not welcome
Aug 4: CNN “Poll: Majority of Americans oppose more US aid for Ukraine”
Aug 8: CNN: “Western allies receive increasingly ‘sobering’ updates on Ukraine’s counteroffensive”
It is becoming clear even to the cheerleaders of the war (all US major media outlets, including CNN) that things are going badly for the Ukraine (NATO/US supported) “counteroffensive.”
There are rumors of negotiations to end the war once the winter “freeze” sets in. But Poland has designs on expanding its influence, if not its territory, into post-war, demilitarized, western Ukraine. The Wagner Group’s presence in Belarus gives Poland a pretext for further fortifying its border with Belarus, and possibly even blockading the Sulwaki Corridor, isolating Kiliningrad. This would escalate the conflict by interdicting Russia’s (and Belorussia’s) only access to the Baltic Sea, now that Finland’s membership in NATO effectively blocks Russian access through the gulf of Finland.
Lukashenko took some immediate pressure off Putin by accepting the Wagner Group, but he probably doesn’t want to escalate tensions with Poland. Point being that this move has broader geopolitical implications than just the cited financial burden would suggest.