Doomsday Scenario

Karl Burkart, well-known writer who specializes in green technology, posts an anonymous email he got from someone who says he’s an industry insider. Go read the whole thing:

What is likely to happen now?

Well…none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact…it’s about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the Blow Out Preventer and the erosion which has exposed the wellhead connection. What eventually will happen is that the Blow Out Preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don’t, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.

Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? …it won’t be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov’t must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.

All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit…after that, it goes into the realm of “the worst things you can think of.” The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out…as I said…all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more. There isn’t any “cap dome” or any other suck fixer device on earth that exists or could be built that will stop it from gushing out and doing more and more damage to the Gulf. While at the same time also doing more damage to the well, making the chance of halting it with a kill from the bottom up less and less likely to work, which as it stands now is the only real chance we have left to stop it all.

It’s a race now…a race to drill the relief wells and take our last chance at killing this monster before the whole weakened, wore out, blown out, leaking and failing system gives up it’s last gasp in a horrific crescendo.

We are not even 2 months into it, barely half way by even optimistic estimates. The damage done by the leaked oil now is virtually immeasurable already and it will not get better. It can only get worse. No matter how much they can collect, there will still be thousands and thousands of gallons leaking out every minute, every hour of every day. We have 2 months left before the relief wells are even near in position and set up to take a kill shot and that is being optimistic as I said.

Over the next 2 months the mechanical situation also cannot improve, it can only get worse, getting better is an impossibility. While they may make some gains on collecting the leaked oil, the structural situation cannot heal itself. It will continue to erode and flow out more oil and eventually the inevitable collapse which cannot be stopped will happen. It is only a simple matter of who can “get there first”…us or the well.

We can only hope the race against that eventuality is one we can win, but my assessment, I am sad to say is that we will not. The system will collapse or fail substantially before we reach the finish line ahead of the well and the worst is yet to come.

Sorry to bring you that news, I know it is grim, but that is the way I see it….I sincerely hope I am wrong.

We need to prepare for the possibility of this blow out sending more oil into the gulf per week then what we already have now, because that is what a collapse of the system will cause. All the collection efforts that have captured oil will be erased in short order. The magnitude of this disaster will increase exponentially by the time we can do anything to halt it and our odds of actually even being able to halt it will go down.

The magnitude and impact of this disaster will eclipse anything we have known in our life times if the worst or even near worst happens. We are seeing the puny forces of man vs. the awesome forces of nature. We are going to need some luck and a lot of effort to win…and if nature decides we ought to lose, we will.

6 thoughts on “Doomsday Scenario

  1. if nature decides we lose, we will probably be facing an extinction event. we will certainly be facing, at the very least, a 21st century dust bowl (IMO). Or rather, an oil bowl, which like the dust of the early 20th century, will force a mass emigration from the deep south and the gulf coast. No one will be able to live there: employment’s already in deep shit, and when the hurricanes bring the oil inland, that can mean the end of their water supply and even the cropland (wait til the oily rain falls on the cotton crops).

  2. BP and the gubmint oughta just take Clinton’s advice and blow the goddamned well up before the full force of hurricane season hits!

  3. This particular prediction seems to be coming up in a number of places I am looking at. I can’t tell if it is from the same source being redacted and passed around or really from different people who know what they are talking about.

    For me it is still in the same class with y-2K predictions and the NAFTA highway, but I am keeping and eye on it. The thing that I wonder about is whether there is any truth in the assertion that the concrete liners inside the well are broken or being worn out.

    This is a link to a post on “The Oil Drum” by a guy who sounds like he knows what he is talking about. He doesn’t agree with the prediction that the Blow Out Preventer is going to fail.

    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6659#more

  4. By the way, the first relief well is closing in …
    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6672
    That is very very good news. Fingers crossed, folks…
    The waves from Alex are going to cause some problems in coming days along the shore, though. oil and big waves… feh…

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