4 thoughts on “A train rolling downhill without brakes”

  1. once again, i don’t think it’s going to happen. maybe israel will attack (but it’s not clear they are capable of pulling it off), but the u.s. is not going to. certainly not this year, probably not even later on. attacking iran was even too crazy for president bush and obama seems to have no appetite to do anything like that.

    the usual warmongers will continue to beat the drum, of course. but i still don’t see it actually happening.

  2. Snuzy, I fear that if Israel decided to do it, they will succeed. They are the preeminent military power in the middle east and Africa, and never lose.

  3. They are the preeminent military power in the middle east and Africa

    no, the u.s. is. the u.s. has more firepower in the middle east and africa than any other country, even countries that live there.

    but even if israel was #1 in the region, so what? being #1 doesn’t mean they have the capability of pulling off a strike against iran. israel doesn’t have aircraft carriers in the indian ocean, or any airbases outside their country. that means to bomb iran, they would need to refuel in the air, over a hostile third country. and, because the idea is to knock down iranian nuclear capabilities, the refueling and bombing operation would require between 50-100 planes in the air, possibly under attack as they try to refuel, before they even get to iranian airspace, with the likelihood that iran will notice and be ready and waiting for the attack force if and when it finally arrives.

    the whole reason that israel is talking about attacking iran so openly and so often itself is a tell that they aren’t going to do it. israeli politicians weren’t discussing bombing iraq in 1980 and they weren’t talking about striking syria in 2007. if they really thought they could pull it off, they would not be making threats, they would just do it. instead, they are trying to berate the u.s. to do it for them, which suggests that their own military analysts think the technical challenges of an israeli assault are too great.

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