Polls, polls, polls

In the brief moments that aren’t awful, 2016 is kind of fun. pic.twitter.com/maCQKcB8xf

— Jamison Foser (@jamisonfoser) August 4, 2016

I don’t normally write about polls, because we still have a way to go and they can be a misleading distraction. Some of this is a post-convention bump (even after Wikileaks). But this has been the best week for Clinton in a while. (This far out in 2008, Obama had a 1.7+ average lead over McCain. Clinton’s is a +6 average over Trump.)

• Fox News has Hillary ahead by 49% to 39%. Fox News has Hillary ahead by 49% to 39%.
• Franklin & Marshall College poll shows 49% Hillary, 38% Donald among likely voters. Senate: Katie McGinty leads Pat Toomey, 39% to 38%.
• Salt Lake Tribune/Hinkley Institute: In Utah (!), Hillary has 36% to 35% for Donald.
• RABA Research: Hillary up, 46%-31%. (No, you’re not seeing things. That’s +15.)
• Detroit News/WDIV TV has Hillary with a large lead on Donald, 41% to 32%. From the story: “The poll contains many troubling signs for Trump’s White House campaign, including a ‘shocking’ lead for Clinton in the Republican strongholds of west and southwest Michigan, pollster Richard Czuba said.”
• CNN/ORC Poll: Hillary 52% to 43%. (In other interesting news, this poll showed Clinton had 91% of Bernie voters.)
• Civitas NC: Donald ahead, 46% to 42%. This is a lot tighter than you’d expect in a Southern state.
• ICITIZEN Tennessee: Donald ahead, 49% to 33%. Still relatively close.
• PBS General Election: Hillary ahead, 45% to 40%.
• Reuters/IPSO online poll: Hillary’s ahead of Donald 40% to 35% for the general election.
• FL Suffolk Poll: Hillary 48% to 32%.
• FL Latino Voices poll (Latinos only): Hillary 78.6% to 12.9% for Donald. In 2012, Romney got 39%.

Polls are just a snapshot in time. But sometimes they're a snapshot of a severed arm.

— Mark Halperin (@MarkHalperin) August 4, 2016