There are many media people suddenly saying Obama can’t win the general - but based on what, exactly? The ponies they’ve suddenly pulled out of their asses? Boy, what a fickle bunch.
See how suddenly they turned on him? The thing that’s disgusting about the media is how firmly they believe their own bullshit. I hate to see a Democrat - any Democrat - go down simply because the press has had a mood change.
I’ve been pointing out Obama’s problems in the general, too, but I think I’ve been consistent, and for what I think are valid demographic reasons.
That’s why I thought this TNR piece was really stupid:
But Obama also lost ground among the upscale white professionals that had helped him win states like Wisconsin, Maryland, and Virginia. For instance, Obama won my own Montgomery County, Maryland by 55 to 43 percent but he lost suburban Philadelphia’s very similar Montgomery County by 51 to 49 percent to Clinton. He lost upscale arty Bucks County by 62 to 38 percent.
For his part, Obama cut into Clinton’s advantage, but couldn’t erase it. Even though he campaigned extensively among white working class Pennsylvanians, he still couldn’t crack this constituency. He lost every white working class county in the state. He lost greater Pittsburgh area by 61 to 39 percent. He did poorly among Catholics–losing them 71 to 29 percent. A Democrat can’t win Pennsylvania in the fall without these voters. And those who didn’t vote in the primary but will vote in the general election are likely to be even less amenable to Obama.
First of all, Montgomery County MD, while one of the most affluent counties in the nation, also has a black population of about 15%. So I don’t see that Obama “lost” anything. That difference could account for a winning margin.
And “upscale” Bucks County? The bulk of the population is in Lower Bucks, with working- and middle-class towns like Bensalem (aka The Hellmouth), Bristol and Levittown. So while you may be comparing fruit, you’re not comparing apples.
Obama will recalibrate his campaign and his message. This is no more the end of the world for him than it was when the media pronounced Clinton “dead.” This is what primaries are supposed to do: Hone the party’s message for the fall.
He spent a lot of money to learn that you can’t build a winning coalition without the working class (and no, union endorsements aren’t going to carry that load for him). Hopefully, that lesson’s learned and maybe things will improve.
If he doesn’t, well, we do have another great candidate.
Is it just now occuring to you that the entire ‘electability’ argument is based on the fact that Barack Obama is black?
I hate to break it to you, but no Democrat has won white people in 40 years. I know that probably offends you as a white person, but white people aren’t our base. They are not our future. We only need to hold the 34-38% of them that we always get and allow Demographics to do the rest. This isn’t 1992, white people don’t make up 90% of the electorate anymore.
furthermore, you are definately not winning without black people. Unless you can explain to me how you expect to get them to make up the 10-15% of the electorate we need them to make up to win after having Hillary awarded the nomination entirely because she is white, then your argument just isn’t serious.
You can pretend that SD’s would be doing it for any other reason if you want to, but I’d suggest you take a look around the black blogosphere and figure out how likely you are to convince black folks of that.
So, Clinton has nothing to recommend her except that she’s white?
So, black people won’t vote if Obama doesn’t get the nomination?
And Denver will break out in riots?
And McCain will win, and the whole planet will go up in flames.
I guess I’ll just give the fuck up now. Thanks.
I actually think one of the biggest reasons he spent a lot of money was to make Clinton spend a lot to defend a state that was supposed to be hers from the beginning. Everything I heard from the Obama campaign made it clear they expected to lose. The hope was to keep the win to single digits but it didn’t seem too important as long as her delegate pick up was small.
She can’t get back all of the time money and effort that went into PA and she goes into the remaining states considerably depleted. Her fund raising would have been there (maybe even bigger) if Obama hadn’t tied her up in knots and kept her to a 9.1% win instead of the 20+ she needed to make up any meaningful ground in pledged delegates, so he has gained considerable advantage with the PA race.
He’s still ahead of her by 10’s of millions in cash on hand and continues to rake in contributions at around twice her rate. One of the best way to make that a real advantage on the ground is to make her blow through her money in a series of “must win” contests. News stories about her being broke and paying vendors late are campaign gold for Obama.