Maybe I’m really off, but the most reliable political indicator for me has always been what I hear people say in public. (I’m an incorrigible eavesdropper.) And in the past, whenever there’s been a big turnover, I’ve heard people – civilians, if you will — talking about the election for weeks and even months before. This time? One conversation in the diner a few weeks ago, where someone was grumbling about how bad it would be if the Republicans won, “because they’re even worse.”
So far, the vibes I’m getting is that this election is a lot closer to 2006 than 1994, when the conventional wisdom was that the Republicans would keep control. Instead, we took control of the House and the Senate and the pundits from both parties were completely wrong.
But it’s a different time now, and who knows? We’ll have a better idea tomorrow night.
UPDATE: I had another thought. A couple of times, we’ve had big Republic victories where I didn’t have a clue — because Republicans are so often spite voters, they don’t want people to know. So they just keep their mouths shut and vote. So we’ll see.