Wikileaks

UPDATE: Oh, here’s a good one:

Growing concerns over Iran’s nuclear facilities may prove to be all for naught. Officials from the global intelligence company Stratfor allegedly discussed that Israel may have already destroyed the Iranian nuclear facility, according to one of the emails released by Wikileaks Monday.

In one of the over five million emails leaked, the conversation centered on Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak praising the news of deadly munitions blasts at a base of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards.

“I think this is a diversion. The Israelis already destroyed all the Iranian nuclear infrastructure on the ground weeks ago,” one intelligence official wrote in an email dated November 14, 2011. “The current ‘let’s bomb Iran’ campaign was ordered by the EU leaders to divert the public attention from their at home financial problems. It plays also well for the US since Pakistan, Russia and N. Korea are mentioned in the report. ”

One other Stratfor official allegedly indicated a similar finding.

“Israeli commandos in collaboration with Kurd forces destroyed few underground facilities mainly used for the Iranian defense and nuclear research projects,” he wrote on November 13, 2011. “Even if the Israelis have the capabilities and are ready to attack by air, sea and land, there is no need to attack the nuclear program at this point after the commandos destroyed a significant part of it.

Some pretty interesting stuff coming out of the Stratfor emails released today, like this one from 2010:

From: George Friedman
Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 09:41:03 -0600
To: Secure List
Subject: Insight–for internal use only–On pain of agony
Internal use only

Some nuggets from meeting:

Kissinger believes that the Israelis are in a panic and will attack Iran. Erdogan has made it clear to him that he plans to break with Israel at some point and reorient toward the Islamic world. He intends to be their leader. Paul Volcker regards the Greek crisis as potentially a mortal blow for the EU. He would
like to see an IMF tranche. He also said that Nicholas Brady is behind both this and the Volcker principles Obama adopted. When I asked Brady how he expects to get the the U.S. to go along with an IMF bailout, he shrugged and said they won’t, but that’s the only choice. Volcker is now doubtful the Euro can survive.
Brady is convinced it will. Kissinger thinks Volcker and Brady are missing the real crisis which is in Iran and potentially Russia. Volcker also says that the Bank of England and the French will go along with the Volcker rules on an international basis–that is returning to a variety of Glass-Steagal. The Japanese will do whatever is said, and in Germany only Deutsche Bank really makes decisions. Sarkozy told him he would come in.

So there may be an international convention on restructuring banks under way–Volcker is pretty careful in what he says and doesn’t promote himself more than the average bear, so this may be the case. Nick Brady thinks so too.

Total confusion on situation in China, but more on Obama. They don’t understand who is running China policy. The decision to meet with the Dalia Lama strikes them as particularly bizarre. But China is the least of the discussion. It is about Greece and Iran. China is kind of an afterthought.

I asked Tim Reed who ran Resolution Trust Corporation during the S&L crisis under Nick Brady whether a new RTC would have been better as a supplement to TARP and he agreed but said that Paulsen was so panicked he wasn’t thinking and Bernaecke and he were just responding.

One sense I’m getting here is that the American elite, along with Europe’s, China’s and just about everyone but Russia’s his suffering from three problems: First, none are really aware of the political pressures on other elites. Second, they completely misunderstand the alienation of the publics, three, except for Volcker, they think this can be handled by the elites among themselves. We have a crisis of the elites, in my view.

I get to hold forth in an hour or so, and I’m going to argue that Iran is going out of control because of the elite crisis. No decision making is going on and the decisions that are being made won’t be supported in the public. The only country that is acting decisively and can do so is Russia.

This is for our own internal use. This must not be published or discussed outside Stratfor.

George Friedman
Founder and CEO
Stratfor
700 Lavaca Street
Suite 900
Austin, Texas 78701
Phone 512-744-4319
Fax 512-744-4334


Jennifer Richmond
China Director, Stratfor
US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
Email: richmond@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com

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